How could Vladimir Putin’s regime end? Is it possible without him dying?
To my deep sadness, we are with you on the European continent and unfortunately I know how dictatorships end. It ends either with the death of the dictator or when the dictator loses the war. The possibility of Putin winning the war was blocked by the West at the turn of 2022 and 2023. When Putin began to lose the war, the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin broke out. However, the West then decided that Putin should not lose the war completely, because Russia has nuclear weapons, it could collapse, because of all this scaremongering. This decision proved irreversible.
How long do you think the war in Ukraine will continue?
Based on the current situation, we expect that it should end in 2027.
And what can happen after that?
Then everything depends on whether Europe will be strong enough. If so, the cold war will last until the death of Putin. If Europe comes to the conclusion that it does not need to be strong and will no longer be under the American military umbrella, Putin may decide to stabilize his government with one more war.
The cost war has been going on for over four years. Despite the rise in oil prices, Russian revenues from oil are falling. Can Russia survive economically?
We investigated the situation in detail. From the point of view of the economy, the situation is really not good, but not critical.
I don’t see a strong opposition in Russia that could seize power. Is there one and in what position is it?
The opposition in Russia exists, it is part of society. It represents both a liberal democratic view, which has about fifteen percent representation in Russian society, which is captured by various sociological surveys. Then there is the nationally patriotic opposition, which we call the Z community, which are people who support the war. They also have about fifteen percent support. They too are caught in surveys. Of course, there is the communist opposition, but today it is integrated into the patriotic opposition or into the majority supporting Putin.
We do not see the opposition with clear and tough demands, which would be loud and have a real influence on the events in the country. However, this is usual in dictatorships, what was the opposition like in fascist Germany? None.
Putin is necessarily getting older, time cannot be stopped. Do you think that he has already chosen his successor, or after his end there will be a power vacuum and a struggle for power, like after the death of Stalin?
What is happening in Russia in this direction is well researched and it is cyclical. There is a very understandable explanation for this. When a dictator prepares a successor, the problem of dual loyalty arises. Dual loyalty ends in an internal crisis, when the dictator either gets rid of his possible successor, or the successor destroys the dictator. That’s why I fear that Putin will not make this mistake.
In North Korea, however, we can see a successful transfer of power from generation to generation.
Russia is not North Korea. Succession of dictators has no tradition in our country.
Is it possible that Russia would become democratized and liberalized after the end of Putin? If so, how long would it last, because Putin is in power with a short break, when Medvedev ruled, for 25 years and many Russians do not know anyone else in charge?
It is necessary to understand that Russia is a large and diverse country. If you want to have a democratic Russia or any other, you can achieve it either through dictatorship or over time. I hope that Russia after Putin will be a politically diverse country. It is possible that Moscow or St. Petersburg will be democratic in the European sense of the word, but it is absolutely impossible that such a democracy will prevail in the lifetime of the current generation in Dagestan or Buryatsk.
Is there a danger that China could try to seize some part of the Far East that was Manchurian? Could there be a crisis like in the late 1960s, or could the Chinese try to control this part of Russia by creating free economic zones controlled by China?
We know that the Chinese political discourse is really talking about the history of about one and a half million square kilometers of Russian territory. However, if you have been to China, you know that a large part of it is not very populated. The Chinese like to live by the sea, on a warm coast. The interior of China is not very densely populated. Expecting from this point of view that China would like to annex some territories in Russia is improbable. In China, no one even wants to go to the cities that are being built inland outside the popular climate zone, let alone go to Russia. Why would they do that?
But it is necessary to understand that China looks at Russia as a possible competitor in the field of current industrial technologies, which is why China does not invest in Russia either.
In conclusion, I will ask you if you would enter politics in the event of the end of Putin or his regime?
I am not originally a politician, I am a manager. If I were needed in Russia, then only as a technocrat.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky (62) is a Russian businessman, an important representative of the Russian exile opposition living in London. He belonged to the richest oligarchs, he owned the Yukos oil company. In 2003, he was arrested and subsequently convicted of tax evasion, fraud and money laundering. His trials are described as partially politically motivated, because Khodorkovsky did not want to submit to Vladimir Putin and sought the democratization and reform of Russia.
