(from our special correspondent from Sarajevo)
Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the candidate countries that would like to join the European Union in the coming years. At what stage is its possible membership and what does Bosnia and Herzegovina have to work on?
Bosnia and Herzegovina has been wanting to join the European Union for several years, and both member countries and EU institutions are accommodating it in this sense. They are spending huge resources to ensure that Bosnia and Herzegovina is able to fulfill the reforms it needs and will need for its membership. Now we are in a turning point, because Bosnia and Herzegovina received a conditional opening of accession talks. Conditional, because it still has to meet the conditions proposed by the EU institutions and approved by the member states, so that the talks can really start.
The relationship between the European Union and Bosnia and Herzegovina has so far been mainly political, with little legal basis. Now it should change to a predominantly legal relationship, i.e. gradual acceptance of the acquis (a set of common rights and obligations that make up the set of EU law and are incorporated into the legal systems of the EU member states, editor’s note) with a small part of politics, and Bosnia and Herzegovina will have to get from one phase to another. It is called membership negotiations, but it basically means that the country that wants to join must accept the acquis of the European Union, i.e. the entire legal system of the European Union, which to date is two hundred thousand pages of text. Bosnia and Herzegovina is still at the very beginning of this journey, and we all hope that after the local elections that took place here in October, by, let’s say, December, when the relevant council will meet in Brussels, the country could fulfill the rest of the conditions for opening talks and that could finally start negotiations in 2025.
The reality is, however, that the Serbian media space greatly influences a large part of Bosnia and Herzegovina
What is the support for entry between people? For example, in neighboring Serbia, it has been steadily decreasing since 2003, and today it is around forty percent.
Support among the people in Bosnia and Herzegovina is still over fifty percent. Of course she used to be taller. This is a question of policies in individual entities and whether people learn every day from television that joining the European Union is something they should wish for, or whether they learn something else. So support is falling because of the political narratives in the country. What is worse and actually more natural is that after many years when they were promised the European project and a better life, people are starting to get tired of waiting and actually gradually stop not wanting to join the European Union, but stop believing that the European Union is ever accepts.
And this is the topic on which we will have to focus, not only on our political decisions and not only on the technical conditions of membership and the implementation of reforms, but also on our communication strategy, so that the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina believe again that the European Union really cares about them . There are a huge number of disinformers working in this country who try to take advantage of the current situation and try to convince Bosnians, for example, that we don’t care about them because they are a partly Muslim country.
This brings me to the question, to what extent does Russian hybrid warfare influence public opinion?
I think the Russian hybrid war affects public opinion secondarily, like all topics of international or foreign policy. The bigger problem is the Russian influence operations that are taking place in parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with which Moscow is trying to push its narratives at the expense of ours. And of course they do it in the same way as elsewhere in Europe. They do not want the reader or listener to believe the Kremlin’s propaganda word for word. They are primarily concerned with questioning everything claimed by the European Union, the North Atlantic Alliance and the Euro-Atlantic community as a whole.
Does this influence also come from Serbia, where, among other things, Russian state television operates?
I actually don’t know if there is an analysis of how much influence comes directly from Moscow, how much is autochthonous in part of Bosnia and Herzegovina and how much may come from Belgrade. The reality is, however, that the Serbian media space greatly influences a large part of Bosnia and Herzegovina and that Serbian television and radio stations and Serbian media in general are very present here.
What is Bosnia and Herzegovina doing to manage this Russian influence?
I am not sure if the influence of a foreign power, which is not well-intentioned, can be controlled. I think it can be limited. I think that state institutions are trying very hard to limit Russian influence, just as radical Islam was limited here when its elements appeared here in the past. But as long as you have media that are sponsored by Russia, you will not get rid of their presence in the public space unless the state bans them. And unlike us, Bosnia and Herzegovina did not do this.
In part, therefore, it is definitely heading not only to the European Union, but even to the North Atlantic Alliance, and in part, on the contrary, it is definitely following its older big Slavic brother.
Do you think this is a mistake?
Here we encounter the problem of the fact that I am the Czech ambassador in this country and I do not comment on their internal politics in this way, because the Vienna Convention does not allow me to interfere in the affairs of their country in this way. But I am definitely satisfied with the way the government is doing it in the Czech Republic and with all the restrictions that our government has implemented. Well, Bosnia and Herzegovina does not implement it.
What direction is Bosnia and Herzegovina heading now? Is it more pro-Western, pro-European orientation, or is it more to the east towards Russia?
Bosnia and Herzegovina has a very complex constitution based on the Dayton-Paris agreement, which contains a division of power that cannot be seen elsewhere in Europe or the world. On this basis, the country’s three-member presidency, which is a collective body – similar to our president – decides on matters of key importance to this country.
One of these matters is foreign policy. Given that the three members of the presidency usually disagree on key issues of the country’s foreign policy, Bosnia and Herzegovina practically never has a unified foreign policy.
In part, therefore, it is definitely heading not only to the European Union, but even to the North Atlantic Alliance, and in part, on the contrary, it is definitely following its older big Slavic brother. And both of these parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina exist and at the state level practically harpoon all the clear direction of the country’s foreign policy. With one exception: with the exception of joining the EU. Bosnia and Herzegovina, both its parts, both its entities (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, editor’s note) as a whole, it stands for joining the EU and they repeatedly confirm it.
You mentioned the North Atlantic Alliance. What is the support of the people regarding the possible membership of Bosnia and Herzegovina in NATO?
It differs in both entities. It will be very low in the Republika Srpska, because the bombing of Belgrade, the capital of Serbia by the North Atlantic Alliance at the time of the Kosovo independence issue, will resonate a lot there. It will be disproportionately higher in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is ethnically dominated by Bosniaks and Croats. However, I am not able to tell you exactly how much support NATO has even in the Federation – if it is fifty or seventy percent. I don’t think that a public opinion poll has been published recently.
Is the support higher or lower than the support for joining the European Union?
If we take the average of both parts of the country, the support for NATO is definitely lower compared to the support for joining the European Union. Support for joining the EU is over fifty percent in the sum of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska. Joining NATO would probably be supported by more than fifty percent of people in the federation, but this number will be reduced again by lack of support in the Republika Srpska.