Can we say who is behind the explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon?
It is not publicly known, but all indications point to Israel. Only a few countries can carry out such a massive and spectacular attack: Russia, the USA, China or Israel. Also applies: Cui bono? So in whose favor is it happening?
It is not in the interests of China and Russia. The US is not thinking about something like that at the moment, because it is concentrating on its own events due to the elections. Half a year ago, the White House would have strongly opposed this action, but now it does not want to get bogged down in foreign policy so as not to damage its democratic candidate. This is also one of the possible explanations for why the attack happened just now.
Why does Israel not agree to this?
Because he never comments on such activities. He did not comment on it, even when there was a targeted liquidation of Hezbollah commanders. And here it was a mass attack that hit the civilian population as well. There are thousands of wounded and many dead, which makes it one of the biggest terrorist attacks. And therefore it is logical that he will not apply for it.
What purpose can such an attack serve Israel?
It is a question of whether such an effect was intended, or whether Israel did not estimate Hezbollah’s distribution network that it would also reach civilians, or whether it did not care. The goal was to demonstrate strength and abilities. He succeeded. And at the same time it creates an atmosphere of fear in Lebanese society. Which was also successful. I have spoken to a number of people in Lebanon and they are all scared because no one knows who will be targeted next. Another motive is the effort to paralyze the leadership of Hezbollah, because if a number of commanders of the movement are injured or neutralized, it will be more difficult to retaliate.
Can we expect any retribution?
Certainly, because such a widespread attack is unprecedented, and Hezbollah has no choice but to retaliate, if only to maintain the respect of its people and allies. Otherwise, it would mean weakness and incompetence. Given that he has been building up the aura of being the biggest non-state actor in the Middle East for a long time, I expect some retaliation to come, otherwise no one will take him seriously.
Did it increase the risk of war in the Middle East?
It is certainly a threat, although it is still maintained that neither Hezbollah nor Iran want an open war. But it can happen, because when you play with matches, a fire can happen, even if you don’t want it.
The goal of the Israeli government is to continue the conflict in the Gaza Strip. It is not developing in the right direction, the hostages have still not been released. And that operation tarnishes Israel’s reputation, because there is widespread destruction and civilian casualties. And this is useful for diverting attention and for creating pressure on the allies to supply weapons in the event of a conflict. There may also be a personal motive of the Israeli prime minister, under whom the chair has been swinging for a long time and who is threatened with investigation.
What is new about the event with pagers?
By how massive it is, because so far such attacks have been targeted at commanders. The use of communication technology is also new – even though decoy devices were used in phones before, but rather the phones were used to locate the target and it was eliminated, for example, by a drone.
How do you think it was done?
Rather not, because Israel will keep it a secret as its operational know-how. Perhaps we will learn something about the actors who managed to get into the supply chain or production and implement the explosive in that device. But it remains unknown how Israel was able to find out that Hezbollah would buy these devices, how it would distribute them and when and how it entered production, how it got the explosive there and when it initiated it. The pager works on radio waves, and therefore the initiation had to take place directly in the field with the help of Israeli agents. These are sensitive details that we will never know.
Isn’t there a danger that terrorists will adopt such new ways of fighting?
Certainly, because it has now been proven that it works. But the difficulty of such an action is so high that only countries with advanced intelligence services can handle it, and it will be difficult for a terrorist organization to engage in it. But it is clear that Hezbollah will have to reevaluate the way it communicates. Because the purchase of communication devices abroad has proven to be a new, major security risk. Hezbollah did not want to use conventional phones because of wiretapping and geolocation and liked pagers that could not be detected. They will have to be inspired by the leading representatives of Hamas, who do not own any mobile phones or change them quickly so that it is impossible to locate them and then dispose of them. But it is unlikely that such an action will be repeated again, because he will prepare for it.
That action divides society. Some say that it was a masterpiece, others that it is irresponsibility. Where are you leaning?
Technologically it was a masterpiece as a presentation of power, but at the same time it was irresponsible due to widespread damage. Israel was obviously sure that it would get away with it politically and morally. Honestly, if the US did it, it would be a worldwide outcry and an immediate congressional investigation. We’ll see what it brings. It will certainly not contribute to the rescue of the hostages from Gaza and to the end of the conflict. But if the goal was to provoke a regional-wide war and escalate tensions, it contributed to that. If it is strategically appropriate, the Israelis must calculate it themselves.
