Captain 1st class (high naval rank – editor’s note) Konstantin Sivkov, who now works as the deputy chairman of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, a commentator and geopolitician, spoke about the path to “shameful peace” last Thursday in the Točka zrenija program of Krasnaya linij station.
He drew attention to the classic rule that in a long war the economy ultimately decides: “We are doomed to defeat. The economic potential of the entire West exceeds Russia’s in terms of size. Now this potential is beginning to be applied in the military sphere.”
He mentioned the growing number of drones that Ukraine sends to Russia: “Tonight (note last Thursday) 380 drones were used, last Thursday 660. The number of these drones will increase. For each of these drones, you need a missile to shoot it down. This means that we have to produce the corresponding number of missiles and compete with the West in the volume of production of these missiles – we anti-aircraft missiles, they drones. We are doomed to defeat in this economic competition.”
At the same time, Sivkov omitted that drones are usually cheaper than surface-to-air missiles, which the West also faces in the case of Russian drone attacks.
Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure
The latest Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and ports in the Baltic Sea again caused great damage to Russia. In the city of Kiriši, two large tanks and oil processing equipment were hit in one of the three largest Russian refineries, KINĚF. The equipment for filling oil tankers in the port of Usť-Luga, where 30 million tons of fuel are exported, was also affected. The oil terminal of the port of Primorsk, through which 60 million tons of fuel passes annually, was also affected.
At the same time, Russia still relies on revenues from the export of oil and gas, they are an important source of financing the war. Now he wants to take advantage of the American-Israeli conflict with Iran, which led to a sharp rise in oil and gas prices. This is helped by the US move to ease sanctions on Russia.
A bet on a decisive offensive
In the given situation, Sivkov clearly says: “Now we need to solve the problem of ending the war. It can end in only two ways – either a shameful peace to which the West is leading us, or a decisive victory in a Special Military Operation conceived as a strategic offensive operation.”
The second option, i.e. to achieve a quick victory followed by peace, is reached by countries that are not capable of waging a long-term war against a stronger enemy. Japan repeatedly tried to apply this strategy during the Second World War, which tried to destroy the American fleet in a decisive battle, which it failed to do. At the end of the Second World War, the Germans also tried to proceed in a similar way with their desperate offensives.
“We are not at all prepared for the second case, our leaders are moving everything towards the first option for political reasons.” said Sivkov, who, among other things, is the author of a well-known text from 2014, where he talks about conquering Kyiv in two or three days at the most, if the soldiers are determined.
Ukrainians disrupt Russian preparations for an attack
Russian nationalist and military blogger Yuriy Podoljaka is also skeptical, stating that Russian forces will not be able to reverse the unfavorable situation at the front in the coming months and that “rather successful” Ukrainian counterattacks will disrupt Russia’s offensive capabilities in 2026. Since the end of January, the Ukrainians have liberated about 400 km2 in Zaporozhye between Hulyajpole and Oleksandrivka
Podoljaka mentioned that the Ukrainians succeed in disrupting supply routes at a depth of tens of kilometers and are able to better adapt to new technologies. He complained about the lack of equipment for radio-electronic warfare and praised the quality of Ukrainian fighter drones, which destroy Russian ones, and the slow reaction of Russian forces in adapting to the new situation. He criticized the command that the front line cannot be held, let alone broken, by the number of soldiers alone.
Kostantynivka will not decide
But it is not just a scene of nationalist military bloggers, similar voices are also heard in the Russian State Duma.
The invading army is trying to conquer the entire Donbas and for that it needs to conquer the cities of Slovjansk and Kramatorsk. For now, fighting is going on for Kosťantynivka, which is on the way to Kramatorsk. There is no such city in front of Slovjansk, but the advance to Lyman has stopped.
The deputy chairman of the defense committee, Alexej Žuravljov, said on Sunday that even if the battle for Kosťantynivka will be a milestone, it will not be decisive, because the cities of Slovjansk and Kramatorsk need to be conquered in order to control Donbas.
There, of course, a huge defeat awaits the Ukrainian forces. “I believe that it is there that the Kiev regime will soon experience its Stalingrad, from which it will never recover. And for the future, it is best to drive the enemy beyond the Dnieper, to the Polish border, and not leave a trace of the current terrorist state,” he told the news server News.ru.
However, the chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, Andrej Kartapolov, warned that an early triumph cannot be expected, because the situation at the front is complicated.
