El Niño and La Niña, whose names mean “boy” and “girl” in Spanish, refer to natural climate cycles in the tropical Pacific Ocean. They are repeated at intervals of several years and significantly influence the weather on the entire planet.
El Niño is associated with unusually warm water in the area. The atmosphere reacts to warming by weakening the equatorial trade winds, which normally blow from east to west, or by reversing them. These changes have a domino effect on the weather all over the world.
In recent months, there have been increasing indications that an extremely strong El Niño is forming in the tropical Pacific. They intensify episodes of westerly flow, which move warm water from the western Pacific towards the east, where there is a rapid increase in the temperature of the ocean.
A super El Niño is emerging
According to the American meteorologist Ben Noll, the current development resembles the situation from the years when the so-called super El Niño occurred. This is defined by a temperature deviation in the ENSO area of at least 2.5 °C above the long-term average. Such powerful episodes are rare.
At the same time, some climate models indicate that this limit could be exceeded. For example, the updated seasonal forecast of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows the onset of El Niño conditions already in early summer. Approximately half of the model runs expect to exceed the deviation of 2.5 °C during autumn.
Strongest El Niño on record this year?!
New ECMWF guidance shows a *75% chance of a super El Niño* by October, with some scenarios suggesting the most intense event in more than a century.
It will bring wide-reaching weather impacts that last into 2027 🧵 pic.twitter.com/cRZrxGCxAa
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) April 6, 2026
Super El Niño last appeared in 2015/2016 and brought record global temperatures. However, according to some scenarios, the upcoming El Niño could surpass even the extreme episodes of 1997/1998 or 1982/1983 and potentially become the strongest in more than a century.
However, it should be emphasized that long-term forecasts are burdened with considerable uncertainty. Models can both underestimate and overestimate the situation. Nevertheless, most of them are currently heading towards an extremely strong episode.
There is a threat of significant weather changes
A strong El Niño could affect the global weather at least until 2027. The biggest concern is the further increase in global temperatures. The episode in 2023 and 2024 already contributed to the record warm years, although it was a significantly weaker phenomenon than what the models now indicate.
At the same time, the seasonal outlook shows that the summer of 2026 could already be above average with the onset of the El Niño phenomenon in Europe. In addition, there is a risk of more frequent and intense weather extremes, including heat waves, droughts, floods or strong storms.
Meteorologists will therefore carefully monitor further developments in the Pacific Ocean in the coming months. If the current forecasts are confirmed, it could be El Niño, which will significantly affect the global climate and possibly even rewrite historical statistics.
El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular periodic phenomenon in the eastern region of the tropical Pacific, during which there is a change in sea surface temperatures and disruption of the Walker circulation, during which the trade winds may weaken or even reverse. This can have a significant impact not only on the regional, but also on the global climate. We determine the ENSO phase according to temperature anomalies (warmer or colder) in the area between 120° and 180° west longitude.
El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO that occurs when surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean warm significantly. In addition, the equatorial winds push warm water towards the east, i.e. in the opposite direction than usual. This phenomenon disrupts normal atmospheric circulation patterns, which can have global effects on weather. During El Niño, heavy rainfall occurs in some areas (eg South America) and drought in others (eg Australia and Southeast Asia). The phenomenon appears approximately every 2–7 years.
La Niña is the cold phase of ENSO, which is the opposite of El Niño. It causes cooling of the surface waters in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, and the equatorial winds push the warm water, on the contrary, more strongly towards the west. This phenomenon reinforces normal atmospheric circulation patterns, which also leads to global weather impacts. La Niña causes drought in South America, while in Australia, Southeast Asia and other regions it brings intense rains and floods.
