According to the model, the SPD would have 4.5 percent, TOP 09 4 percent and SOCDEM 3 percent of the votes. Like Přísaha, the People’s Party would receive 2.5 percent. The Greens would have a two percent profit and PRO 2022 would get 1.5 percent.
According to a hypothetical calculation, ANO would occupy 88 seats, STAN 34 and ODS 30 seats. Motorists would have 19 mandates, Pirates 15 and Communists 14.
The parties of the current government coalition (ODS + TOP 09 + KDU-ČSL + STAN) have a simple sum of support of 31 percent of potential voters. Without forming pre-election coalitions, they would have won 64 parliamentary seats. However, the ODS with TOP 09 and the People’s Party ran under the Spolu banner in the last elections.
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Parliamentary elections
The preferences of ANO and ODS have not changed compared to the November model. STAN improved by three percentage points. Motorists’ preferences increased by half a percentage point, while Pirates’ preferences decreased by the same percentage.
The Communists have worsened by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, the preferences of the SPD movement have fallen by two percentage points.
“ANO is still gaining new voters, especially from among those who did not come to the elections in 2021 or voted for the SPD. The shift of voters who voted for the Spolu coalition in 2021 to STAN is also evident,” the agency said.
Even smaller parties are not without a chance
If the ANO movement received votes from all voters who plan to vote for it and do not rule out participation in the elections, it would receive up to 40 percent of the votes. STAN’s potential is 24 percent, in the case of ODS 20.5 percent.
TOP 09 would hypothetically be able to reach up to 14.5 percent of people, Pirates could reach 13 percent, Motorists 12.5 percent. The potential of SOCDEM, SPD, People’s Party and Přísaha ranges between 7 percent and 8.5 percent.
54.5 percent of respondents are clear about their participation and their chosen party, a third want to go to the elections, but are not sure who to vote for.
Willingness to participate in the elections dropped slightly to 61 percent, in the last parliamentary elections in October 2021, the voter turnout was 65.43 percent.
Between November 21 and December 31, 1,015 adult respondents took part in the Median survey. The statistical deviation of the electoral model is plus or minus half a percentage point for small parties and up to 3.5 percentage points for parties with the most support.
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Parliamentary elections
