In a video published on the YouTube channel, Kuleba recalled that in 2022, Belarus provided Russia with its territory and airspace for an offensive against Kyiv. After that, the Belarusian army stayed away and, according to him, Belarusian officials wringed their hands during non-public contacts that nothing could be done about the Russian offensive from their territory.
“Russia sees Belarus as a second front that it would like to open against Ukraine,” said Kuleba.
According to him, the first sign that Belarus is preparing for a military escalation are ongoing military exercises, which the Belarusian army has not stopped for five years. “And these trainings are under the careful supervision of Russian instructors,” says Kuleba.
According to him, the second sign is the clear emphasis of the Belarusian leadership on the mobilization readiness of the whole of Belarus, and not only its armed forces. Reservists are called up more often.
In addition, Kuleba points to large-scale military maneuvers. Command and staff exercises took place in the spring. According to him, it is not just about checking readiness, but about training for coordinated military action in real war scenarios. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is said to personally participate in them and inspect the generals.
Another signal is the strengthening of Belarus by Russian air defense systems, which, according to Kuleba, indicates preparation for potential incoming attacks.
The fifth sign is the increasing direct cooperation between the Russian and Belarusian armies. Coordination with the Russian army reaches a new level, moving from cooperation to synchronized planning.
“I am convinced that the Russians are helping Belarus very seriously with preparations. The set of factors that we are monitoring points to a qualitatively new level of preparation of the armed forces of Belarus for certain actions under the control, supervision and support of the Russian Federation. Does this mean that Belarus will already launch an offensive? In my opinion, not yet. Many things can still happen,” the former minister stated.
According to Kuleba, Alexander Lukashenko is cunning and reasonable enough to be aware of the consequences of Belarus’ direct entry into the war.
“His dream is to preserve Belarus as a kind of quasi-island, a preserved Soviet Union. And that its soldiers do not die and its cities are not destroyed. But Vladimir Putin is clearly pushing him into this situation. So I do not see that an offensive is imminent, but in my opinion it is a clear preparation for military escalation,” believes the former diplomat.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi spoke a few days ago about the fact that Russia is trying to drag Belarus into war again. According to him, Belarus has started to set up artillery positions on the borders.
On Friday, according to the Unian agency, Belarus also issued a call-up order for reservists. They will be sent to the army and border guards. The channel Pul Pervogo, which is connected to the Belarusian presidential administration, said that there is a plan to call men under 27 years old from the ranks of reserve officers. The channel emphasized that these are planned events that take place every year.
