YES decreases slightly, Motorists would get to the House of Representatives

The Spolu coalition, i.e. the coalition of ODS, TOP 09 and People’s Party, would take second place, with 18.3 percent. The STAN movement would get 11.2 percent, the SPD 7.9 percent, the Pirates 5.9, and the Stačilo! movement, where the KSČM plays a dominant role, would have 5.2 percent.

Conversely, SOCDEM (formerly ČSSD) would remain outside the House with 3.7 percent and Příšaha with 2.3 percent. SOCDEM’s support has been increasing slightly since September, while the Pledge’s support is decreasing, even at the expense of Motorist’s growing support for itself.

“The most interesting thing at the moment is the position of Motorists themselves, who have probably the greatest potential for growth from all sides. We can already see that they are taking the Oath voters, but they also share a number of potential voters with ANO and SPD. The Motorists themselves say that their goal is to defeat the ODS in the elections. If they want to strive for her voters, they should work on a communication strategy that will appeal to these voters, because we do not yet see a connection between the ODS and the Motorists from the data,” says political analyst NMS Market Research Tereza Friedrichová.

Although the ANO movement would have won the elections, not only the estimated electoral gain, but also the so-called potential, i.e. the number of voters who are considering giving their vote to them, decreased slightly month-on-month. It fell by 1.1 percentage points to 39.1 percent.

If all these people who are thinking about it would vote for the ANO movement, it would gain more than half the number of mandates in the House of Representatives and thus be able to rule by itself, which is what the chairman Andrej Babiš and the vice chairman Karel Havlíček repeatedly indicate as their goal.

The ANO movement also has a stable electoral core. The share of people who are firmly convinced of the choice of the given party is 21.5 percent. The second strongest electoral core has Spolu, it is 7.1 percent, the electoral potential is 25.5 percent. Together as potential voters, he addresses especially those who are now voting for the STAN movement. It is precisely STAN that has a weak electoral core, it is only 1.2 percent.

Motorists, who are considered by 11.2 percent of voters, have relatively promising electoral potential, but their electoral core is only 1.4 percent.

In the December measurement, it was stated that 56 percent of eligible voters will participate in the parliamentary elections, which is similar to the previous months. This declared turnout is lower than the actual turnout in the elections to the House of Representatives in 2021, when it was 65.4 percent.

“We can read from the December election model that the situation on the Czech political scene stabilized to a certain extent in the fall. The ANO movement is the clear leader, and both Stačilo! and Motorists themselves are now regularly above the five percent threshold,” said Friedrichová.

The situation could be influenced by the formation of a new party, for example, there has been long-term speculation about a possible project of former finance minister and TOP 09 chairman Miroslav Kalouska, but he has not yet announced the formation of a new entity.

Data collection took place from December 3 to 9, 2024. 1001 respondents participated in the research.