The Russians at the bases in Syria have already packed. Most likely they will move to Libya

According to experts, since the overthrow of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, there has been a very brisk movement at all Russian bases in Syria. Attack helicopters and S-400 air defense systems were disassembled by technicians to allow them to be transported over long distances.

The giant Antonov An-124 cargo planes at the Hmímí air base are gradually filled with military equipment and take off from the country. Several flights were already heading to Libya, Reuters reported.

According to Jalel Harchaoui, a political scientist and Libya expert at Britain’s Royal Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI), “Libya has become much more important to Russia.” Already during 2024, according to RUSI, the Russians strengthened the runways and perimeter defenses at the air bases in Libya controlled by their supporters and delivered additional weapons.

Since 2014, Libya has been divided into two parts, which are controlled by two competing governments. The UN-backed administration, which is known as the Government of National Unity, is based in the west of the country, while its competition is in Tobruk, where it controls the east of the country with the support of self-proclaimed field marshal Khalifa Haftar and armed groups subordinate to him.

In the last ten years, competing governments have repeatedly tried to control the entire country. However, none of them succeeded and the conflict in Libya has reached a deadlock, which ensures uncertain security for local residents. It largely depends on two powers that have significant military power in the country, Russia and Turkey, which stands against it.

According to Deutsche Welle, Frederic Wehrey, head of the Middle East department at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is convinced that Assad’s fall could affect this delicate balance. According to him, the frozen conflict in Libya could go into a “hot phase” again.

According to the website, Wolfram Lacher, an expert on Libya at the German Institute for International and Security Policy, is convinced that it depends on Russia’s next step.

“The Russians have wanted a naval base in Libya for several years, and the main goal of the Americans in the last two years is to prevent that,” explained Lacher.

However, if the Hmimim base in Syria could remain under Russian control, the move to Libya with regard to the never-ending influence in the Mediterranean Sea will appear less necessary.

The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which together with its allies now controls Syria, has so far been very pragmatic in relation to Russia, said Nanar Hawach, chief analyst for Syria at the Crisis Group think tank, according to Deutsche Welle.

According to him, HTS forces even protected Russian convoys going to the naval base in Tartús and the air base in Hmímím. “But we must not forget that Russia played a significant and important role in the fight of the Syrian government forces against HTS,” he reminded.

Nevertheless, the new Syrian ruler, Ahmad Shara, has stated that he does not want Russia to leave in a way that does not correspond to its relationship with Syria. “There are deep strategic interests between Russia and Syria. Russia is an important country.”