The change in weather is related to a significant change in atmospheric circulation. Between the pressure trough over the British Isles and the large area of high pressure over southwestern Europe, warm air will begin to flow into Europe.
He will experience the first taste of the Iberian Peninsula at the end of the working week. The warm weather will spread rapidly to the north and east and will affect most of Europe by Easter. In some places, temperatures will be up to 10 °C above the long-term average.
Warming will also reach Central Europe and will peak on Sunday. Temperatures in the Czech Republic will reach 20 °C, especially in Bohemia, but they can significantly exceed this limit. Some models allow up to 23 °C.
However, the weather will not resemble a stable spring. Central Europe will remain under the influence of frontal systems associated with low pressure, so there will be more clouds and occasional showers. The south-west of Europe is waiting for more sun.
Summer temperatures in France
In addition, warming in Central Europe may not be long-term. At the turn of the week, a cold front will end it. Shortly after that, another wave of warm air will begin to prevail, but it will mainly affect Western and Southern Europe.
It should be even more pronounced. Already on Easter Monday, maximums of around 30 °C are expected on the Iberian Peninsula and in France, which corresponds to the rather summery nature of the weather, especially in France.
This is not the first significantly high temperature in the country this year. Already at the end of February, they measured 29.6 °C in the south-west of France, which was even more unusual. This time, however, the probability of crossing the 30 °C limit is higher.
Will the warm weather last?
Central Europe, on the other hand, will be affected next week by a ridge of high air pressure that will reach the region from Scandinavia. This will divide Europe into two parts – very warm in the west and south and colder in the east and north.
Photo: ECMWF
Average temperature deviations over Europe in the week from March 6 to 13 according to the ECMWF model
The Czech Republic may find itself at the interface of two air masses. If the flow from the Atlantic prevails on the back side of the ridge, it will be warmer. Otherwise, colder air from the north will begin to flow towards us along the front side of the ridge.
This uncertainty is well demonstrated by the outputs of the meteorological models, which diverge significantly from Tuesday. What is certain is that Easter will be warm in most of Europe. Only the next few days will decide where the warm weather will last and where the cold will return.
