From October 1, 2025 to the end of March 2026, Russian troops occupied 1,929,696 km². They thus advanced at a speed of 10.66 km². A year earlier, between October 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025, they conquered 2,716.6 km², when they gained an average of 14.9 km² per day, the Institute for the Study of War reported.
This year’s Russian progress is even slower due to Ukrainian counterattacks, which amounted to 5.5 km² per day, while last year it was 11 km² in the first three months. In March, Russia was even losing territory, because the Ukrainians liberated about 400 square kilometers between the Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk regions from the end of January, which was not balanced by Russian attacks in other directions, such as at Russia’s border with the Sumy region or the advance towards Lyman, which stopped.
Russia already changed its tactics last year, when instead of direct attacks it chose infiltration by smaller units, which were supposed to upset the Ukrainian defense and open the way for larger forces. The infiltration was successful, but the subsequent step in the form of taking control of the entire territory was less so. It took them more than half a year in Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad. They did not succeed in Kupjansk and were also pushed back at Huljajpole.
“The reality on the battlefield at the end of March 2023 continues to show that significant Russian territorial gains leading by themselves to complete victory are not current or inevitable,” the Institute for the Study of War evaluated the data. “The Russian advance has slowed considerably as Russian forces continue to suffer manpower losses and increasingly rely on ill-trained and under-equipped infantry to gain territory.”
Russian requirements
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Russia demands that Ukraine withdraw from Donbas within two months, otherwise it will quickly conquer it. However, the development of the situation on the battlefield and the slowing down of Russian progress show that the threats about the rapid fall of Donbas are outdated and that Russia is trying to achieve at the negotiating table what it cannot achieve in the field.
At the same time, even in Russia voices are being heard more and more strongly that the decision will not be made immediately, that although Ukraine will be defeated, the conquest of Constantinople will not bring a decisive success either; it can even bring about the fall of Slovjansk and Kramatorsk, which will not be conquered within two months.
