“The strategy of the Iranians is to attack not only American bases in the region, but also American allies, to provoke the allies to put pressure on the Americans,” Hellyer told Sky News. According to the expert, this strategy is bluffing and only works when threats are involved.
“Once you attack, bluffing is over,” he said. Iranian behavior will mean that countries in the region will align with the United States. “I think it will take revenge on Tehran,” he said.
But the regime is still holding. “I think the system is relatively resilient at the moment. Despite the strikes that killed a large part of the country’s high officials, the regime is still holding on,” he added.
The analysis of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz sounds in a similar spirit. The security architecture of the Middle East may be on the verge of a complete change due to Iranian strikes on its neighbors in the region, and it is not clear whether the Iranian regime will survive this change.
On the first day of the strike, the Arab leaders watched as the security framework there, which they had built for years, was disintegrating right before their eyes, writes Haaretz. Enraged Iranian forces are now firing in all directions, including Oman, which issued a statement supporting Tehran and brokered talks between Iran and the United States.
The message is clear: as long as the Iranian regime remains in power, it will continue to create instability and will not hesitate to harm even those who tried to guide it. In this context, the alliance between the Arab states and the USA is likely to strengthen.
It now depends on how and whether the regime will fall at all. If it is a palace coup that brings more moderate figures to power, or if it is weakened to the point where it can no longer threaten its neighbors, rebuild its power, and fund its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, the security architecture of the region will be permanently altered. The Middle East will not become an oasis of peace, but one of its most dangerous actors will leave the stage, writes Haaretz.
