“We are seeing indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland,” The Guardian quotes a statement from Latvian intelligence. However, according to the newspaper, this would not be a full-fledged attack.
A similar statement was made last week by a high-ranking political source from another NATO member country.
“We are getting intelligence” that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is “planning something against the Baltic states”, he said, adding that the Kremlin chief might be willing to test US support for some of the alliance’s smallest member states, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, in a “desperate attempt to turn the tide” at a time when the Russians are struggling in their war against Ukraine.
Latvian intelligence further let it be known that Moscow does not have the strength to open a second front, but that it is considering “hybrid attacks such as missiles, drones or other actions aimed at sending a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems.”
The British daily said the warning comes at a time when Russian advances in Ukraine have stalled, which it said raises questions about whether the Kremlin will turn to “alternative strategies to break the stalemate or change the dynamics in its favor.”
“Moscow will look for ways to disrupt the current trend, through escalation or something similar. We should not expect Russia to passively lose,” the newspaper quoted Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the Chatham House think tank.
A Western military source said on condition of anonymity that there were fears that Russia could attack if Putin felt pressured to move the war to Moscow and St. Petersburg. “I can’t lie, it’s a dangerous time,” he said.
The Russians have already carried out the provocation in Poland. Last night on September 10, 19 drones were sent to its territory. Some of them penetrated deep into the interior, only hundreds of kilometers from the Czech border. In response, the Alliance activated Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which launched consultations between member countries.
Ukrainian achievements
The Ukrainians moved the war to Moscow, especially in recent weeks, when they struck twice at the Moscow oil refinery in the southeast of the city. They also hit a luxury apartment complex with a drone. St. Petersburg was engulfed in flames at the beginning of June, on the day when the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum began in this city. At that time, the Ukrainians hit the oil transfer station.
Western military services have been warning for years that the Russians could attack the Alliance. Some talk about an attack by 2030, others in a shorter time. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk then let it be known in April that Moscow could attack this year.
