Warming in Europe. An intense heat wave threatens next week

At the weekend, the weather in Europe will begin to be influenced by a large area of ​​higher air pressure, which will support gradual warming. At the same time, warmer air from North Africa will flow over the continent, which will increase the temperature even more.

However, the building of a large area of ​​warm and dry weather will be gradual. During the weekend, most of the continent, including Central Europe, will still be affected by a cooler northwest flow. More significant warming is still expected especially in the south-west of Europe.

In the Iberian Peninsula, in southern France and in Italy, a longer period of heat, which can last more than a week, will begin. The highest temperatures are expected in the interior of Spain, in the south of France and in the north of Italy, where maximums may reach or exceed 35 °C in some places.

Initially, it will not be a continental heat wave. However, models indicate that next week the hot weather could spread to most of Europe. The area of ​​high air pressure will begin to move to the center of the continent and may remain there for some time.

The warming will be gradual. At the beginning of next week, it will first appear in Western and Southern Europe, later also in the central part of the continent. According to current model outputs, the peak of the heat wave could occur in the second half of next week.

Outside the mountain areas, temperatures should rise to tropical values ​​almost everywhere. Some model scenarios, however, expect significantly higher temperatures of around 35 °C, exceptionally even close to 40 °C. At night, temperatures would not drop below 20 °C in many places.

This scenario could also apply to the Czech Republic, although we will probably avoid the area of ​​greatest extremes west of our territory. Nevertheless, it is very real that in the second half of next week the daily maximums will range between 30 and 35 °C, occasionally even higher.

The models indicated the possibility of an intense heat wave during the next week in their forecasts from the beginning of the week, but the uncertainty was very high. In the last hours, however, it decreased significantly and the probability of this scenario increased. The intensity and extent of the phenomenon remains less certain, which will be specified in the following days.

In some respects, the situation is reminiscent of the record heat wave in May. It was also preceded by a significantly colder period and very warm air spread to Europe from the southwest under the influence of an extensive thermal dome. Unlike the situation at that time, however, we are now at the beginning of summer and temperatures could rise even higher.