“In and around the administration, there are opinions that politically it is much better if the Israelis go alone first. Then if the Iranians hit us in retaliation, it will give us more reasons to take action,” one of the sources told Politika.
The advisers believe that this scenario would be politically better. If Iran responded to Israeli attacks and the United States subsequently came to Israel’s aid, it would allow more support for American strikes from the American electorate. Although recent polls show that Americans, especially Republican voters, support regime change in Iran, they are not willing to accept any risk of American casualties.
“If we are talking about an attack on such a scale that would change the regime, Iran would very likely respond with everything it has. We have many bases in the region and each one is a potential target,” another source told Politika. He pointed out that they are in different countries and are not protected by an anti-missile shield: “There is a high probability of American casualties. This entails a great political risk,” said the source.
The US wants to take advantage of the fact that during the last meeting in the US, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Donald Trump to do something about the Iranian nuclear program.
A military solution is more likely
The attack on Iran is being talked about more and more often, because they extinguish hopes for a diplomatic solution. Iran does not want to permanently give up the uranium enrichment program on its territory, it is only willing to limit the level of its enrichment to 3.6 percent and temporarily suspend the process. He does not want to talk about ballistic missiles at all.
Nevertheless, on Thursday in Geneva, American ambassadors Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are negotiating with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakçi. Although Politico described the talks as real, and not just fake, but according to one of its sources, the prevailing opinion in the administration is “we’re going to bomb them”.
However, according to The Times of Israel, Iran wants to offer Trump the opportunity to use Iran’s mineral wealth and thereby make him agree to an agreement. One of the American representatives stated that such possibilities have not yet been discussed and Iranian proposals have not yet been submitted. Iranians appeal to the efforts of the American president for mutually beneficial agreements. Arakčí expressed optimism before the negotiations.
However, there are concerns that the US does not have enough heavy ammunition to launch a large-scale attack with a clear result and at the same time have enough weapons to intimidate China so that it does not take advantage of the situation and occupy Taiwan.
In the Middle East region, they now have two aircraft carriers, the USS Gerald Ford and the USS Abraham Lincoln, together with approximately 180 aircraft, including the F-35 Lightning II. The Americans also moved 150 other machines to the area, including the “invisible” F-22A Raptor, E-3G Sentry early warning and control aircraft, and refueling aircraft.
